BLOG: Risk Watchdog

Updated daily by key members of Business Monitor International's Country Risk team, The Risk Watchdog blog gives you up-to-date insight and comment from our analysts around the world, covering global financial markets, economic analysis and political risk.

 

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Country Risk
Japan: Economy Bottoming Out, But Long Recovery Ahead

July 2 2009

BMI View: Although the Japanese economy appears to have bottomed out in Q109, we caution that the recovery will be long and errati ...

Financial Markets
Europe Key Market View: Bullish Hungarian Treasuries

July 2 2009

Having pulled out of our bullish equity key market views in mid-June, we are beginning to see some strong potential in central European fore ...

Industry
Gazprom Offers Turkey Role In South Stream

July 2 2009

Russian gas export monopoly Gazprom has offered Turkey a role in the South Stream pipeline project, which is designed to transp ...

Companies
Pakko Pursuing Western Region Expansion

July 2 2009

Ukrainian mass grocery retail (MGR) chain Pakko Holding has announced plans to acquire stores from some of its smaller competitors in Ukrain ...

 Latest Reports From Our Store
Country Risk | Country risk analysis, macroeconomic forecasts and business environment rankings, covering 175 markets worldwide
Special Reports
- £330
Read More China: Double Dip Recession
39 pages    Pub date: May 25 2009   
A key risk for the Chinese economy is a weak recovery followed by a second downturn – a 'double dip' recession.
- £330
Read More Caribbean 2009-10: Trouble In Paradise
51 pages    Pub date: May 14 2009   
BMI presents a comprehensive report on the Caribbean, including our views on the future of offshore financial centres, the diversification of tourism, and the rising tide of crime.
- £365
Read More Emerging Europe: The Crisis And The Recovery
85 pages    Pub date: April 21 2009   
Emerging Europe is the worst positioned region heading into the global recession and is looking at an economic contraction in excess of 4.0% in 2009. Importantly, the same factors that are driving down growth in the short run will also hamper the recovery…
- £330
Read More Africa in 2009: The Ones To Watch Amidst The Global Crisis
49 pages    Pub date: February 27 2009   
Regional Heavyweights To Feel The Heat With the international economy likely to experience one of the sharpest downturns in decades, we believe that sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) will be exposed to the global recession in 2009 but will avoid the full ravages which will hit other regions. With a forecast real G...
- £90
Read More Britain on the Brink:
UK Economy Sliding Out of the Global Premier League

65 pages    Pub date: February 11 2009   
Britain is facing an unprecedented fall in its economic world ranking, according to a newly produced report by country risk specialists Business Monitor International (BMI). Ranked by GDP per capita, the UK is set to fall by nine places, from 12th place in 2007 to 21st in 2010.
- £425
Read More BRICs - Is The Rapid Rise of Brazil, Russia, India and China Sustainable?
83 pages    Pub date: March 28 2008   
LATEST Business Forecast Reports
- £475
Read More Norway Business Forecast Report
21 pages    Pub date: July 2 2009    Quarterly   
The Norway Business Forecast Report provides essential macroeconomic, political and financial analysis for companies doing business in Norway.
- £475
Read More Indonesia Business Forecast Report
61 pages    ISSN: 1470-7403    Pub date: July 1 2009    Quarterly   
Economy To outperform Region, But Risks Rising Indonesia’s growth will inevitably slow in tandem with the other economies in the region. However, Indonesia has the advantage of having a large domestic consumption base, making it less reliant on external demand than other Asian economies. In...
- £475
Read More Taiwan Business Forecast Report
61 pages    ISSN: 1479-6252    Pub date: July 1 2009    Quarterly   
Economy To Remain Short-Circuited in 2009 Owing to its heavy dependence on exports of cyclically sensitive goods the Taiwanese economy could well turn out to be one of the worst-performing economies in the world in 2009. Exports have quite literally fallen off a cliff, with the important el...
- £475
Read More Oman & Yemen Business Forecast Report
66 pages    ISSN: 1750-216X    Pub date: July 1 2009    Quarterly   
New Challenges For 2009 Economies across the globle will suffer a difficult year in 2009, and Yemen and Oman will be no exception. Yemen will be the more insulated from the global crisis, thanks to its low levels of integration with global financial markets, but both will be severely affect...
- £475
Read More Colombia Business Forecast Report
61 pages    ISSN: 1474-1458    Pub date: July 1 2009    Quarterly   
Short-term Uncertainty could Hamper longer-term Prospects We continue to be concerned about the political and economic outlook for Colombia in 2009, and the recent downgrade to our global growth forecast suggests that the picture may not improve substantially until 2011. At present it is st...
- £475
Read More Peru Business Forecast Report
57 pages    ISSN: 1474-1407    Pub date: July 1 2009    Quarterly   
Economy From Full Throttle To emergency Brakes Peru’s fiscal surplus provides the authorities with considerable room for counter-cyclical spending this year. Peru’s non-financial public sector nominal budget posted a 2.1% of GDP surplus in 2008, equivalent to PEN7.8bn (US$2.7bn). The govern...
- £475
Read More Israel Business Forecast Report
59 pages    ISSN: 1479-6112    Pub date: July 1 2009    Quarterly   
Plenty Of Challenges For New Government Israel’s new government was not yet in place at the time of writing, but it faces a host of challenges when it finally takes office. The most obvious is the economy – Israel is heading for recession, the export sector in particular is suffering and dr...
- £475
Read More Philippines Business Forecast Report
65 pages    ISSN: 1474-1407    Pub date: July 1 2009    Quarterly   
Although real GDP growth surprised on the upside in Q 08, with a 4.5 % year-on-year (y-o-y) expansion beating a consensus forecast of a 3.5 - 3.8% increase and bringing full-year growth for 2008 to 4.6%, we see no reason to alter our 2.8% growth forecast for 2009. The slowdown is expected to be led by de...
- £475
Read More Turkey Business Forecast Report
65 pages    ISSN: 1470-7357    Pub date: July 1 2009    Quarterly   
Deep recession Now Our Core Scenario We believe that a deep recession for Turkey in 2009 is all but unavoidable as the global economic outlook deteriorates further and a protracted credit constriction accentuates declines in foreign capital inflows. As deleveraging underpins the macroeconom...
- £475
Read More Angola Business Forecast Report
53 pages    ISSN: 1757-4641    Pub date: July 1 2009    Quarterly   
Oil Dependence To Prompt Recession In 2009, Angola faces a significant macroeconomic challenge in the form of sharply lower oil prices. Hydrocarbons have fuelled double-digit economic expansion in recent years, but with a global recession and reduced oil export revenues in the pipeline, mor...
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Take A Trial Global Macro Monitor - Europe Edition
24 pages    ISSN: 2041-3416    Monthly   
BMI View: We hold to our view that the Baltic and Bulgarian pegs will be devalued, while simultaneously cautioning that this will pose significant risks to Western European banks and Eastern European investor sentiment. To be sure, despite the substantial private sector external debt in these economies, we believe...
- £465
Take A Trial Global Macro Monitor - Latin America Edition
24 pages    ISSN: 2041-3424    Monthly   
BMI View: Latin America’s record breaking monetary easing cycle is winding down, with only a few minor cuts in the pipeline in H209. Should policymakers draw cycles to a close, as expected in the weeks ahead, we are concerned that Latin America’s local debt markets would start to look increasingly vulnerable. ...
- £480
Take A Trial Global Macro Monitor - Middle East & North Africa Edition
24 pages    ISSN: 2041-3432    Monthly   
BMI View: The economic arguments for a trade-weighted basket peg make sense for the Gulf single currency, and this could be very bad news for the US dollar. The signing of a monetary union agreement in June was another step forward for the GCC single currency, although the surprise withdrawal of the UAE was a bl...
- £485
Take A Trial Global Macro Monitor - Sub-Saharan Africa Edition
24 pages    ISSN: 2041-3440    Monthly   
BMI View: The ‘boom then bust then reflation’ of the commodity complex has had a mixed effect on trade balances in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). While all countries have benefitted from smaller energy bills as oil collapsed, the effect on the oil exporters has been severe. It has similarly affected those countries dependent on...
- £895
Take A Trial Global Macro Monitor
44 pages    ISSN: 2041-3394    Monthly   
When will the downturn end? This is arguably the world’s most synchronised recession since the 1930s, as trade linkages and the evolution of global finance has tied economies inextricably together. Nonetheless, the answer to this question will depend to a degree on where you are, as different countries are i...
- £465
Take A Trial Global Macro Monitor - Asia Edition
24 pages    ISSN: 2041-3408    Monthly   
BMI View: Beyond the global recession, Asian nations face significant structural challenges that they must overcome if they are to progress to a higher level of development. Success cannot be taken for granted. The rise of Asia as the world’s major economic power centre has largely been taken for granted, and many...
- £465
Take A Trial Latin America Monitor - Andean Group
8 pages    ISSN: 0265-9093    Monthly   
Andean Group Monitor each month provides country-by-country analyses, ratings and forecasts covering political risk, economic performance, key industries, finance and the business environment
- £465
Take A Trial Latin America Monitor - Brazil
8 pages    ISSN: 0969-5966    Monthly   
Brazil Monitor each month provides analyses, ratings and forecasts covering political risk, economic performance, key industries, finance and the business environment
- £465
Take A Trial Latin America Monitor - Caribbean
12 pages    ISSN: 0265-9115    Monthly   
Caribbean Monitor each month provides country-by-country analyses, ratings and forecasts covering political risk, economic performance, key industries, finance and the business environment
- £465
Take A Trial Latin America Monitor - Central America
8 pages    ISSN: 0265-9085    Monthly   
Central America Monitor each month provides country-by-country analyses, ratings and forecasts covering political risk, economic performance, key industries, finance and the business environment
- £1675
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24 pages    ISSN: 1359-0006    Weekly   
Emerging Markets Monitor provides weekly analyses, forecasts and ratings on fixed income, foreign exchange, commodities, bonds, equities and funds across global markets, all backed by Business Monitor International’s highly respected assessments of political and macroeconomic risk.
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12 pages    ISSN: 1064-1912    Weekly   
Corporate Financing Week provides must-read updates and analysis on global M&A activity, IPOs, privatizations and equity and debt financing strategies, with must-read updates and analysis on all the key breaking deals.
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Industries | Industry trend analysis and forecasts, and competitive intelligence on leading companies, covering 16 industries across 60 markets worldwide
LATEST Special Reports
- £255
Read More Overview Of Europe's Major Gas Import Pipelines
18 pages    Pub date: June 24 2009   
North America and OECD Europe remain major suppliers of both oil and natural gas but are also among the biggest consumers, so have until recently been experiencing an overall rise in energy imports. The impact of high energy prices in 2008, followed by the savage recession of 2009, has reversed the demand trend in many...
- £425
Read More Latin America 3G
45 pages    Pub date: May 8 2009   
BMI assesses the impact of 3G launches on the Latin America mobile market and considers the prospects for the region's operators
- £255
Read More Impact of Global Financial Crisis On Unconventional Projects: The Canadian Oil Sands
11 pages    Pub date: April 15 2009   
BMI assesses the impact of the global economic downturn on Alberta’s oil sands industry as lower oil prices hit project economics.
- £330
Read More Biosimilars: Obama Unfolds New Opportunities
28 pages    Pub date: April 6 2009   
BMI explores challenges and opportunities in researching, developing and commercialising biosimilars, with an emphasis on regulatory issues
- £425
Read More Foreign Investment Growth Drives Middle East & Africa's Commercial Vehicles Market
50 pages    Pub date: March 23 2009   
- £425
Read More Opportunities in Asia's High Growth Commercial Vehicles Market 
58 pages    Pub date: February 3 2009   
- £255
Read More FedEx and UPS Prepare To Fight Their Way Through 2009
8 pages    Pub date: January 30 2009   
- £255
Read More Russia-Ukraine Gas Crisis: The Impact On European Energy Security
14 pages    Pub date: January 26 2009   
- £425
Read More Top 10 Mobile Operators for Western Europe
62 pages    Pub date: January 7 2009   
- £425
Read More Top 10 Mobile Operators for Asia
65 pages    Pub date: January 5 2009   
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LATEST Industry Reports
- £535
Read More Malaysia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report
102 pages    Pub date: July 2 2009    Quarterly   
In the BMI Business Environment Ranking matrix for Q209, Malaysia returned to eight position (from tenth previously), out of the 15 key regional markets surveyed in the Asia Pacific region. Key attractions of the Malaysian pharmaceutical market are the government’s encouragement of the biotechnology sector and the f...
- £535
Read More Slovenia Insurance Report
102 pages    Pub date: July 2 2009    Quarterly   
We forecast Slovenia to fall into its first recession in 17 years in 2009, with a real GDP contraction of 1.7% pencilled in. External factors are key for the macroeconomic outlook. Not only do we expect exports to tumble by 8.0%, but capital inflows too are likely to contract, weighing on domestic credit growth and capita...
- £535
Read More Ukraine Food & Drink Report
91 pages    Pub date: July 2 2009    Quarterly   
In BMI ’s Q209 Food and Drink Business Environment rankings, Ukraine remains ranked 12th out of 14 major Central and Eastern European (CEE) markets. Despite improvements to foreign food and drinks players provided by the Ukraine’s recently attained membership of the World Trade Organization (WTO), the country’s opera...
- £535
Read More Qatar Infrastructure Report
88 pages    Pub date: July 2 2009    Quarterly   
In 2009, Qatar is presenting some of the best prospects for growth in construction in the Middle East; this is related to the country’s reliance on gas and LNG exports over oil. As one of the top three gas producers in the world, the country will withstand the economic downturn better than its regional peers in 2009. As s...
- £535
Read More Ukraine Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report
83 pages    Pub date: July 2 2009    Quarterly   
As Ukraine slips deeper into political confrontation and a deep recession begins to be felt, BMI is forced once again to downgrade its forecasts for the country’s pharmaceutical market. The weakening hyrvnia will translate into a big hit on US dollar market value in 2009. Our updated forecast for 2008 to 2013 sees ...
- £535
Read More Argentina Telecommunications Report
90 pages    Pub date: July 2 2009    Quarterly   
Argentina’s placing in our Business Environment Rankings fell to sixth in Q109 as it reached 100% penetration reducing the future growth prospects for the market. The political and economic situation has also deteriorated, reducing the country risk score placing Argentina further down the rankings. As the global recession ...
- £535
Read More Romania Telecommunications Report
88 pages    Pub date: July 2 2009    Quarterly   
In our Q209 Telecommunications Report for Romania, we have added a new section focused on mobile content while leaving the fixed-line and internet market data analysis sections stagnant, to be updated with additional content in the following quarter. We have also updated our mobile and fixed-line forecasts through ...
- £535
Read More Venezuela Food & Drink Report
69 pages    Pub date: July 2 2009    Quarterly   
Despite the current problems facing Venezuela, per capita food consumption (food and drink, excluding alcoholic drinks) is expected to grow over the next few years. This is likely to be driven partly by increased prices owing to rocketing inflation but also by the continued redistribution of the country’s oil revenues to t...
- £535
Read More United Kingdom Autos Report
56 pages    Pub date: July 2 2009    Quarterly   
The slump in automotive sales in the UK has begun to have a direct bearing on the cash positions of many UK-based carmakers. As BMI examines in this report, these conditions have prompted dealerships to focus on cost management and product diversification in order to help meet their operational needs. The mar...
- £535
Read More Indonesia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report
89 pages    Pub date: July 2 2009    Quarterly   
Indonesia is one of the most promising long-term opportunities for pharmaceutical companies. However, numerous short-term challenges must be overcome, such as protectionist government and inequitable access to healthcare. The value of pharmaceuticals sold in 2008 reached US$2.79bn and BMI is forecasting a compound a...
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LATEST Industry Insights
- £420
Take A Trial Western Europe Pharma & Healthcare Insight
12 pages    Pub date: June 11 2009    Monthly   
The Western Europe Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Insight provides market intelligence, trend analysis and forecasts for the pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry across Western Europe, as well as examining the implications of global trends at a regional, market-specific and company level.
- £420
Take A Trial Americas Automotives Insight
12 pages    Pub date: June 11 2009    Monthly   
The Americas Automotives Insight provides automotives market intelligence, trend analysis and forecasts for the automotives industry across North and South America, as well as examining the implications of global trends at a regional, market-specific and company level.
- £420
Take A Trial Asia Pacific Automotives Insight
16 pages    Pub date: June 11 2009    Monthly   
The Asia Pacific Automotives Insight provides automotives market intelligence, trend analysis and forecasts for the automotives industry across Asia Pacific, as well as examining the implications of global trends at a regional, market-specific and company level.
- £420
Take A Trial Western Europe Automotives Insight
12 pages    Pub date: June 11 2009    Monthly   
The Western Europe Automotives Insight provides automotives market intelligence, trend analysis and forecasts for the automotives industry across Western Europe, as well as examining the implications of global trends at a regional, market-specific and company level.
- £420
Take A Trial Americas Food and Drink Insight
12 pages    Pub date: June 11 2009    Monthly   
The Americas Food & Drink Insight provides food & beverage market intelligence, trend analysis and forecasts for the food, beverage, grocery retail and tobacco industry across North and South America, as well as examining the implications of global trends at a regional, market-specific and company level.
- £420
Take A Trial Asia Pacific Food and Drink Insight
16 pages    Pub date: June 11 2009    Monthly   
The Asia Food & Drink Insight provides food & beverage market intelligence, trend analysis and forecasts for the food, beverage, grocery retail and tobacco industry across Asia, as well as examining the implications of global trends at a regional, market-specific and company level.
- £420
Take A Trial Americas Telecommunications Insight
12 pages    Pub date: June 11 2009    Monthly   
The Americas Telecommunications Insight provides telecoms market intelligence, trend analysis and forecasts for the telecoms industry across North and South America, as well as examining the implications of global trends at a regional, market-specific and company level.
- £420
Take A Trial Asia Pacific Telecommunications Insight
16 pages    Pub date: June 11 2009    Monthly   
The Asia Telecommunications Insight provides telecoms market intelligence, trend analysis and forecasts for the telecoms industry across Asia, as well as examining the implications of global trends at a regional, market-specific and company level.
- £420
Take A Trial Western Europe Food and Drink Insight
12 pages    Pub date: June 11 2009    Monthly   
The Western Europe Food & Drink Insight provides food & beverage market intelligence, trend analysis and forecasts for the food, beverage, grocery retail and tobacco industry across Western Europe, as well as examining the implications of global trends at a regional, market-specific and company level.
- £420
Take A Trial Western Europe Telecommunications Insight
12 pages    Pub date: June 11 2009    Monthly   
The Western Europe Telecommunications Insight provides telecoms market intelligence, trend analysis and forecasts for the telecoms industry across Western Europe, as well as examining the implications of global trends at a regional, market-specific and company level.
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